A veil of uncertainty has fallen over Ukraine’s southern front as a counteroffensive raises hopes of further Ukrainian gains and speculation mounts over what Russia’s next move could be.
There are mixed messages about Russia’s plans for the key city of Kherson, which it has seized since the early days of the war. Some indications suggest that Moscow is preparing for battle, while others indicate that it is preparing to withdraw.
Over the past two weeks, Kherson’s Kremlin-backed government has broadcast dire messages about an imminent Ukrainian attempt to retake the city and moved thousands of residents across the Dnipro River, deeper into Russian territory. Ukraine has accused Russia of fomenting “hysteria” to force residents to flee.
Moscow has also begun reducing its occupation footprint in Kherson. Ukrainian officials say the Russians are moving wounded, administrative agencies and financial institutions out of the city while sending more troops to reinforce their positions.
A man who still lives in the town said Russia was withdrawing facilities for services such as passports and pensions and that he had seen fewer people and soldiers on the streets in recent days.
“There was a turnover and they brought in new soldiers,” the man, who asked not to be named for security reasons, told CNN on Sunday. “Some of the soldiers who were here for a while left and the new one [ones] he came. They are probably conscripted, conscripts. They don’t even know what city they are in.”
The Ukrainian military has observed similar Russian moves.
“They are moving their elite units and officers from the west bank (of the Dnipro River), leaving only those who are mobilized and expendable,” Natalya Khomeniuk, a spokeswoman for Ukraine’s military, told national television on Sunday.
The start of the week was unusually quiet on the southern front. Russia fired two S-300 missiles into a residential neighborhood on the outskirts of Mykolayiv on Saturday night, injuring five. But Sunday and Monday nights did not produce any significant drone or missile attacks.
And on Tuesday, Ukraine’s military claimed Russian forces were preparing “defensive positions” along the east bank of the Dnipro – the opposite side of the river from the city of Kherson – and leaving small paths for a “possible retreat” from the west bank .
“According to available information, the enemy is setting up defensive positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region,” the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in their daily operational briefing.
“Near the settlement of Hornostaivka, engineering and boat units of the Russian occupation troops are laying mines along the coastline, leaving small paths for a possible retreat of their troops from the right (west) bank,” the post continued. CNN could not confirm the Ukrainian military’s claim.
All this has raised hopes among residents that Russia may be preparing to withdraw from the city and settle in more defensive positions further back for the difficult winter months ahead. Even vendors in the city’s market have started asking for Ukrainian hryvnia, rejecting the occupiers’ rubles and preparing for release, the resident told CNN.
But on Monday, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Service poured cold water on the idea that Kherson’s release could be imminent, saying “they’re not getting ready to leave now – they’re getting ready to defend.”
Russia is bringing new troops to Kherson to fortify the city against any new Ukrainian attack, Major General Kyrylo Budanov told Ukrainian media.
“They create the illusion that everything is gone,” Budanoff said. “At the same time, on the contrary, they are bringing there new military units and preparing the streets of the city for defense.”
On Monday night, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine must prepare for a winter that “will be the hardest in our history.”
Meanwhile, Kherson’s Russian-based leaders said in a Telegram post on Monday that “the opportunity has been created” for those men left behind in the city to join the territorial defense forces.
“Those who wanted to leave, left,” the Kherson resident told CNN. “The (Ukrainian) people who have stayed here are united, they stay united, … they try to help each other.”
When the battle for Kherson could take place is unknown. Ukrainian forces have not made significant advances toward the city since early October, when Zelensky said his troops had retaken about 500 square kilometers (193 square miles) in their push toward the city.
As they have done for weeks, the leaders of Russia’s proxies in Kherson insist they will defend the city.
“Everything will be fine,” Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-backed deputy head of the region, told Telegram on Monday morning. “We are not going to hand over Kherson. The city will become a grave for many Ukrainians who forgot their history lessons.”
The feeling of unease is heightened by Russia’s recent historical views. Without providing any evidence, Moscow accused Kyiv of planning to use the so-called dirty bomb. Western leaders dismissed the charge as a fake operation that the Kremlin could use as a pretext to escalate the war.
Ukraine also accused Russia of preparing to blow up a large dam at a hydroelectric plant upstream from Kherson. Crucially, the dam and surrounding area are controlled by Russia, and Zelensky said his government had information suggesting Russia had mined the structure. While the flood caused by blowing up the dam would expand Russia’s defense barrier if it were withdrawn, the downsides would far outweigh the strategic gains, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence said. Russia in turn has accused Ukraine of planning to attack the dam.
“They will completely flood the eastern bank of the Kherson region,” Budanov said on Monday. “They will, even theoretically, lose the ability to supply water to the North Crimean Canal in Crimea until we rebuild the dam, and that will take a long time. It will be impossible to do.”
“And the most interesting thing is that they will destroy the possibility of the existence of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, because this facility is inextricably linked to it.”
Budanov still believes that Kherson could be liberated by the end of the year and that Russia is actively preparing for a possible withdrawal.
“They are in danger of ending up in the same situation that our units in Mariupoli found themselves in earlier,” he said. “The situation is a little different, but conceptually it will be very similar.”
“And understanding all of that, they’re setting the stage so that if they need to, they can get out of there very quickly.”
Meanwhile in Kherson, the man CNN spoke to said he and the rest of the town’s residents were stocking up on food and essentials in preparation for a tough time that could lie ahead.
“It’s our city. We think we have to wait until our army comes,” he said. “I can’t say we’re not afraid, we are – but that’s our decision.”
CNN’s Clarissa Ward, Maria Avdeeva, Jo Shelley, Josh Pennington and Olga Voitovych contributed to this report.
