Macron’s center-back could lose dozens of seats in the French National Assembly in next Sunday’s final following a strong showing by a historic left-wing alliance led by France’s hard-line Jean-Luc Mélenchon with the Socialists and Greens. “A few months ago, there were televised debates about whether the left was dead and over,” said Clementine Otten, who is likely to be re-elected in Saint-Denis outside Paris for the alliance known as the New Popular Ecological and Social Union or Nupes. “Honestly, this alliance is a success.” He said it was now crucial for the left to try to promote young people and those with low incomes who did not go to the polls. Macron, who was re-elected president in April against Marine Le Pen, needs a majority in his lower house to have his hands free on proposals to raise the retirement age, cut taxes and make changes to the welfare system. Macron’s centrists and their allies, running under the Ensemble (Together) flag, are still projected to win the largest share of the 577-seat House. But to secure the absolute majority, 289 seats are needed. Pollsters predict they will get between 255 and 295 seats, which means a clear majority is not guaranteed. Le Pen’s far-right National Rally also did well and is likely to increase its seats, despite a historically low turnout of just 47% across France. A result on Sunday without an absolute majority for Macron’s camp could lead to a messy struggle as he seeks to expand his centrist alliance with new parties or make individual deals on each bill, for example with right-wing rivals such as Les Républicains. There could also be a government reshuffle. Macron’s centrists did worse in Sunday’s first round of parliamentary elections than they did when he was first elected five years ago in 2017. “It is clearly not a great result,” Mathieu Gallard, Ipsos poll director, told France Inter radio. “Macron’s team also lost 3.9 million votes from its score in the first round of the presidential election.” The shape of the future parliament will now depend on the final vote on 19 June. Several of Macron’s ministers are fighting close to the constituency against the left and will have to resign from the government if they lose. They include Amélie de Montchalin, the environment minister, who is competing in Essonne, just outside Paris. Macron’s party leader, Public Administration Minister Stanislas Guerini, as well as European Minister Clement Bonn, are fighting close races in various parts of Paris. Montchalin set the tone for a fierce battle against the left, telling a television station that the left was an extremist who wanted “anarchy” and “unrest” and to weaken French institutions. Élisabeth Borne, the Prime Minister expected to be elected in Normandy, claimed that Mélenchon’s left-wing alliance represented a “rupture with Europe, a fascination with authoritarian regimes” and alignment with Russia. The Nupes staged a regular coup in the first round. The fact that they have joined forces for the first time in 25 years, presenting only one candidate in constituencies, means that they will greatly increase their representation in parliament. They will more than double their number of seats and are projected to win between 150 and 210 to become the largest opposition force in parliament. Four members of the left-wing parliament, including three young candidates, were elected in the first round in the Paris region as the alliance gained ground in and around urban centers. Meanwhile, the progress of Lepen’s party has been significant. It increased its votes by more than 1.2 million since the last parliamentary elections of 2017. The far right could win up to 40 seats, compared to eight they won in 2017. This would be historic, as Le Pen’s party has traditionally been held back by a lack of proportional representation in parliament and has struggled in the past. system after the vote. More than 15 seats would give Le Pen an official parliamentary group, with more visibility to speak and put issues on the agenda, as well as critical additional financial resources. In some districts, such as Pas-de-Calais in the north and Vaucluse in the south, the party advanced to the second round in each constituency. It also gained support in the Northeast. The right-wing party Les Républicains and its allies came in fourth with a share of the vote, hoping to retain between 33 and 80 seats. This is a drop from more than 300 members of parliament 20 years ago under Jacques Chirac, or the 100 seats held by the right and its allies at the end of the last parliament. But the team could play an important role if Macron’s centers fail to gain a majority and seek new alliances.
