While the threat of an economically damaging trade war has made headlines, it will not be the EU’s first move.
Legal action
More immediately, the EU is likely to restart an old legal complaint and provoke news of the government’s alleged failure to implement parts of the Northern Ireland protocol. According to the protocol, Northern Ireland remains in the EU single goods market and the European Court of Justice has jurisdiction. Last March, Brussels launched legal action against the government after the government announced that supermarkets and their suppliers would not have to comply with many EU food rules, a unilateral extension of the grace period. The EU suspended its legal action in July as a gesture of goodwill to help resume talks, but it is now likely that this case will be revived, which could end with the ECJ imposing daily fines. The European Commission has other complaints about the UK implementation of the protocol: including a unilateral decision to lift some controls on cold cuts and a alleged failure to provide data and build border inspection posts. The complaints challenged by the United Kingdom could also end up in the ECJ. However, as one of the expected clauses in the bill is the removal of the ECJ’s jurisdiction, this legal action is one of the weakest weapons in the EU arsenal.
Make life difficult
Britain’s participation in the EU Horizon research program € 96 billion (£ 81 billion); A note on financial services for setting up a talk shop for regulation? Agreement on the return of asylum seekers to the EU? No chance. These disputed agreements will remain frozen throughout the Northern Ireland Protocol dispute. The EU ambassador to London, João Vale de Almeida, has already “regretted” that the researchers were “collateral damage” in the protocol dispute. While London and Brussels will continue to work together on sanctions against Russia, any positive agenda will remain deadlocked. Individual Member States may also choose to put pressure on the government. France, for example, could step up controls on British products entering the EU. Tougher controls would mean more truck queues in Dover.
Trade war
The final penalty is tariffs on British products or even the suspension of the entire EU-UK trade and cooperation agreement. When the EU entered a trade war with Donald Trump’s White House, it imposed tariffs on Harley Davidson motorcycles, jeans and bourbon. Thus, it can be expected that Brussels will target emblematic British products in the event of a trade war with the United Kingdom. But imposing tariffs is not a quick option. The EU must go through the demanding dispute settlement process outlined in the Brexit withdrawal agreement. The case would first go to the Joint Ministerial Committee, chaired by Foreign Minister Liz Truss and European Commission Vice-President Maro šefčovič. The next step would be an independent arbitration panel that could impose fines on the guilty party. The EU-UK trade agreement can only be suspended in the event of a persistent breach of the rules. EU governments, which are also struggling with the rising cost of living, hope to avoid what they see as a pointless, costly dispute. Subscribe to the First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7 p.m. BST
Keep talking
As tensions rise, the EU will continue to offer talks on existing proposals to facilitate customs controls and bureaucracy on the UK-Northern Ireland border. This follows his general approach throughout the Brexit process that he does not want to be the party pulling the plug in the negotiations. While British negotiators are hoping the bill will be compromised, the threat has provoked the opposite response: the EU has joined forces to defend the protocol.
