The Storm Prediction Center updated the format of possible severe weather phenomena in this afternoon’s update. The long runway of possible strong gusts of wind indicates the need to watch out for a derecho. Derecho is a wind event that lasts a straight line. NOAA defines derecho as “a section of wind damage that extends more than 240 miles and includes gusts of at least 58 mph or greater for most of its length.” Michigan is not in the tornado alley, but we are in the derecho alley. The tornado comes from the Spanish word tornar, I turn. Derecho is also a Spanish word meaning straight. Monday will have an accumulation of thunderstorms that will develop somewhere in Wisconsin or Illinois and will cross southern Michigan late Monday afternoon or evening. The update this afternoon shows the route waiting for the Storm Prediction Center for a series of strong storms. Strong wind forecast from 8 a.m. Monday, June 13 until 8 a.m. Tuesday 14 June. The black zone is where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) targets what they call “significant severe weather.” The SPC debate says, “Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday in parts of the northern plains and from parts of the Midwest to the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Heavy hail, catastrophic winds and a few tornadoes seem likely. “Some of the winds could be significantly stronger (75+ mph) in parts of the Midwest / Ohio Valley Monday afternoon / evening.” “Given the power of the high flow and the ability to develop a very well-organized bow, the possibility of significant gusts is evident locally. A narrow corridor with wide coverage of serious gusts is expected, although the emergence of this corridor remains difficult “. The Storm Prediction Center and I suggest we should see where the initial storms form early Monday afternoon. The further north the storms form, the more likely it is that strong winds will sweep through southern Lower Michigan. Here is a new radar forecast from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR). It is usually quite accurate and shows severe thunderstorms early Monday afternoon. Radar forecast from the HRRR model from noon on Monday until 23:00 on Monday. Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor, Detroit and the surrounding area could be found on the path of this powerful storm complex. Stay tuned for more updates as the possibility of bad weather approaches. At some point late Monday morning we should have a good sense of where the storms will form and where they will follow.
