According to the polling agency Ipsos, the left-wing NUPES alliance backed by the fancy Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the Macron’s Ensemble! the coalition each won 25.2 percent of the vote to elect representatives to the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.
However, opinion polls suggest that a strong showing of the left in the first round will not necessarily translate into seats, as Macron and his allies appear poised to take advantage of a run-off vote next Sunday under the two-round system. , which generally favors more centrist candidates.
A candidate can win in the first round if he receives at least half of the votes cast, as well as the votes of at least a quarter of the registered voters in his constituency. If not, the candidate who gets the most votes in the second round becomes an MP.
According to Ipsos, Macron’s coalition will take between 255 and 295 seats after the second round, compared to just 150 to 190 for NUPES. This would continue to signal a significant balance of power in the National Assembly, as Macron’s allies currently have 345 seats in the outgoing hall. The majority would be 289 seats. Any number smaller than that for the ruling coalition would mean that Macron would find it difficult to push through legislation and major reforms, such as the pension system.
Although far-right leader Marin Lepen won 39% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election in April, her party secured only 18.9% of the vote in the parliamentary elections, according to forecasts.
Voter turnout also appears to have reached a record low for parliamentary elections with just 39 per cent turnout at 5pm local time, according to Interior Ministry figures. Low turnout means fewer candidates will advance to the second round, as candidates must receive at least 12.5 per cent of registered voters to continue.
The final results of the first round are expected later on Sunday.
