A frantic last week of campaigning will begin on Monday before the run-off, as Macron’s center-left are still hoping to move on, but face uncertainty about whether they can win a crucial majority in parliament. Macron’s central alliance, the Ensemble, was projected to receive 25.2% of the vote, according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimates for France Télévisions. A historic alliance of parties on the left, led by Melanson’s France Unbowed party, including the Socialists and Greens, was in exactly the same shape – presenting a challenge to Macron. Turnout on Sunday is estimated to have hit a record low of about 47%, according to the polling company forecasts, after candidates described the mood of voters as angry and frustrated with the political class. Government spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire said the low turnout was the “key issue”. Macron, who was re-elected president in April against far-right Marine Le Pen, needs a majority in his National Assembly centrist group to have a free hand in his proposals for tax cuts and changes to the welfare system. . The parliamentary results will determine the balance of power for Macron’s second term, identifying his ability to implement domestic policy, such as raising the retirement age and reviewing the benefits system. The Melanson Alliance – known as the Nupes, or New People’s Ecological and Social Union – seeks to increase its seats and reduce the number of Macron centers. The coalition platform includes a significant increase in the minimum wage, a reduction in the retirement age to 60 and a freeze on basic food and energy prices to address the cost-of-living crisis. The voting system for the French parliament based on constituency, the first after the end, means that the exact number of seats for each group remains difficult to predict. The shape of the new parliament will become clear only after the second round on 19 June. Based on initial estimates, Ispos predicted that Macron’s centrist alliance would win the largest share of the 577-seat parliament – with between 255 and 295 seats. This suggests that there was a possibility that Macron’s centers would not have an absolute majority, which requires 289 seats. If Macron’s party and its central allies fail to secure a majority, it would be a setback for the president and could lead to messy bill deals with right-wing parties in parliament or an unwanted cabinet reshuffle. The left-wing alliance could take between 150 and 190 seats, according to Ipsos. Macron and ministers had stepped up their campaign this week, warning that Melanson was a dangerous and extremist who would kill the European Union, “ally with Russia” and add “global disorder”. Lepen’s far-right National Rally party, which won eight seats in 2017, hopes to win at least 15 seats this time around, allowing it to form a parliamentary group and gain more visibility in the National Assembly. Ipsos suggested the party win up to 45 seats. Although Le Pen came second in the presidential election with a record high of 41%, the voting system for parliament has proved to be historically difficult for her party in the parliamentary elections. Subscribe to the First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7 p.m. BST Le Pen, from the Hénin-Beaumont stronghold in northern France, called on her voters to join her party against what she called Macron’s “barbaric” style of politics. He said France was suffering, citing the cost-of-living crisis as well as the treatment of English fans in the Champions League final in Paris, which was seen as damaging France’s image abroad. The first weeks of the new government were tense in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, with hospital strikes and cost of living concerns, and Macron was accused by Ukraine of being too hospitable with Russia. Macron’s new Minister of Disability, Damien Abad, has faced two rape allegations – which he has denied – but which have sparked street protests for women’s rights, and the new prime minister, Elizabeth Bourne, has yet to make an impact. Macron has made it clear that incumbent ministers – including Bourne, who is making her first attempt to win a seat – will have to resign if they lose.
