When Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca said he would step down in the aftermath of last week’s provincial election, he was the latest addition to a large group of Canadian party leaders who received only one kick in the ballot box. Conservative leaders Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole scored just one shot. Liberal leaders Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff were given only one chance each. Iain Rankin in Nova Scotia and Andrew Wilkinson in BC each had only one chance to win. Almost all of these leaders resigned. But it certainly seemed that they resigned, amid internal party pressure, to avoid the embarrassment of expulsion. This is not the case for every leader. The same night that Del Duca resigned after being elected leader, Andrea Horwath resigned after four at the top of the Ontario NDP. Stephen Harper lost his first election before winning the next three. Robert Stanfield went on three strikes before Joe Clark took over the federal Tories. The most extreme examples, Wilfred Laurier and Mackenzie King, led each of their parties to seven elections, with some defeats resembling victories. These days, party leaders who lose elections often (but not always) resign. Winning undoubtedly helps in longevity, but for those who lose, does the spontaneous “one and finished” model go up? Western University political scientist Cristine de Clercy says that while there is a general lack of patience with leaders these days, it does not make sense to consider it a one-way street. “I think we are just in another era, as we have been in the past, where the expectations of the public and the parties around the leaders are very strict. And if the leaders can not win, then they are out,” he said.

Great Expectations

The reason, says de Clercy, depends on expectations. Leaders who fail to keep the promise they made to the party remain on the sidelines, which is why Del Duca bowed, he says.
The Liberals went from seven seats in 2018 to only eight seats in the recent elections in Ontario and came back in third place. “The magnitude of the results last week was simply not expected,” de Clercy said. “Just to outline an alternative case, if the Liberals thought they would not win seats last week and had eight seats, it looks like a hero.” He emphasizes that the expectations set by the parties are not always “necessarily reasonable” – so they are not just about the performance of the leader. Alex Marland, a political scientist at Memorial University of Newfoundland, agrees that expectations are the main variable that determines whether a party leader should deal with music after a lost campaign. But he also says the stakes are now generally higher for leaders, given their expanded role in politics and that they are more closely associated with the party brand. And with the advent of social media and greater political coverage overall, Canadians may simply outgrow leaders who then “lose their shine” faster, he said. CLOCKS Horwath retreats:

NDP leader Andrea Horwath announces her resignation

The Hamilton politician, who won re-election on Thursday, was excited after she failed to become Ontario’s prime minister in her fourth attempt. “Political leaders have a shorter lifespan than they used to,” he said. “People are tired of seeing the same leaders all the time.” They are also subject to simple declines in party popularity or voter fatigue with a particular leader or party, he says. And, in general, different parties have different expectations. While Liberal or Conservative federal leaders may expect their respective supporters to form a government in any given election, the same may not be true for the New Democrats, leading to some relative stability. “Many of [the NDP’s] Leaders have suffered terrible losses, but fought a campaign with principles. “And the member is looking forward to it and is happy with it,” de Clercy said. “While, on the contrary, for the Liberals and the Conservatives, it is a matter of power, it has to do with victory.” Marland says each party has developed its own unique leadership culture, with the NDP often rejoicing in being the “moral conscience of Parliament”.

Women tend to have more precarious leaderships

De Clercy also says that not all leaders receive the same level of charity when it comes to meeting expectations. Women, he says, tend to be more precarious in their leadership. “They are not always, but often, more prone to being challenged and rejected,” he said. “And when there is a chance to replace them … things unfold quite quickly.” Many women politicians also face what is being called the “glass cliff” phenomenon – giving them the reins at a particularly weak time for the party. Marland says the Conservatives have recently turned particularly relentless on losing candidates. The party will elect a new leader this fall. And whoever that is, their fate will largely depend on who leads the federal Liberals to the next election. If Justin Trinto decides not to run, the future of the new Tories leader will be a bit wild, says Marland. But if Trinto leads the Liberals once again, as he said he will, the stakes are even higher because, after 10 years out of power, the Conservatives believe they have to win. “If Trinto wins the next election… and returns as prime minister, I think the Conservatives would be so angry that they would have to blame someone and blame whoever is the leader.”