The first round of parliamentary elections opens on Sunday to decide who will fill the 577 seats in the Assemblée Nationale. Much of the political noise and outrage in France was concentrated in the April presidential election, but Macron now needs a parliamentary majority to advance his agenda for the next five years. Cohabitation – a situation in which the president faces the opposition majority in parliament – would force compromises on the law and virtually halt any efforts to carry out his most controversial reforms, including raising the retirement age. The biggest threat to Macron comes from a coalition of groups from the split left of France, called Nupes – La Nouvelle Union Popular, Ecologique et Sociale (the New Popular Ecological and Social Union) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, its leader anti-NATO. anti-European Union La France Insoumise (LFI – Unbowed France). Polls suggest the Ensemble, Macron’s central coalition, is tantamount to Nupes, and while political analysts suggest the radical left alliance is unlikely to win a majority, it could deprive Macron of up to 40 seats and control. of the Lower House. In the past, when France elected a president, it logically proceeded to elect a government that supports him with a majority of labor. However, Melanson, the third man in the April presidential election, breathed new life into the French left with a coalition of Greens, Communists and Socialists drawing support from the city’s youth. Surveys show that 44% of people aged 18-24 support Nupes. Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon returned to battle in Marseille last week. Photo: Daniel Cole / AP Manon Aubry, a member of the European party for La France Insoumise, said Mélenchon’s “make me prime minister” campaign was effective. “For the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic [since 1958] the president-elect is not certain to have an absolute majority. We have created a huge interest around Nupes. the campaign revolves around us. “It’s good or bad, but it’s our concern,” Aubry told the Observer. “The panic it has caused, the caricature and slander we have suffered shows the uncertainty and fear on the other side. “They are very scared.” Political scientist Pascal Perrineau, director of political research at SciencesPo, said there was no “honeymoon” for Macron after the April presidential election, nor a real parliamentary campaign by his party. “Apart from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who did the show, no one was able to campaign,” Perrineau told Le Parisien. Melanson, 70, lost a little out of the April 10 presidential election, conceding defeat and hinting that he was ready to back down and let a new generation take over. “We were so close, but… the younger ones will say to me, ‘We still haven’t won, but we were not far, eh? “Do better,” he said at the time. Nine days later, Melanson returned to the running, describing the legislative vote as a “third round” and urging voters to elect him prime minister. French elections Mélenchon is not running for office, and constitutional rules state that it is the prerogative of the president, not parliament or the people, to decide who runs the government, but could be named prime minister if Nupes, backed by left-wing economists, including Thomas Piketty, has a majority. It is not clear how this would work in practice, as the couple disagree on almost everything. Melanson promised to clarify the changes in Macron’s first term and reduce the retirement age to 60, reinstate property tax and increase pensions and the minimum wage. Three constitutional law experts who wrote in a legal journal last week suggested with remarkable underestimation that Macron and Melanson would operate in a “conflicting manner.” “It would certainly be paradoxical to see the people make two opposite political choices two months apart and deny the new head of state the means to govern,” they wrote, adding: “In these uncertain times of losing points of reference and random electoral mobilization. , the case can not be ruled out “. “We’ve had cohabitation in the past and that doesn’t mean chaos,” Aubry said. “The president is in charge of foreign affairs, but with a majority in the National Assembly we would elect the government and run the country,” Aubrey added. If no party achieves an absolute majority, any proposed legislative change submitted to the lower house would require the formation of alliances. Perrineau believes that an absolute majority for Nupes is “completely impossible”. “Melanson pretends to believe it, he only hopes to be the first group of the opposition. “Once Macron is elected, the French are not strategic enough to deprive him of the opportunity to implement his policy,” he told French journalists. Abstention is another unknown factor, with opinion polls suggesting it could reach 54%. On Thursday, Macron called on voters to give him a “clear and strong majority” and warned the “extremists”, namely the Nupes and the far-right National Assembly, were seeking to “break alliances like NATO… and call Europe into question”. . For Melanson, he said last week, “It is rare to win an election when no one is even running,” adding: “The president chooses the person to be named prime minister by parliament. “No political party can impose a name on the president.” The parliamentary elections will decide who will cover the 577 seats of the National Assembly. Photo: Remon Haazen / ZUMA Press Wire / REX / Shutterstock Unfortunately, his political claimants say they have found that voters have “very little incentive, even complete loss”. Each candidate who receives the absolute majority of votes and at least one quarter of the registered voters shall be elected immediately. If not, the candidates with at least 12.5% of the votes pass to the second round next Sunday. The first results based on the counting of votes in the constituencies that are considered representative of France will be announced at 20:00 on Sunday. The final results will be announced early Monday morning. Noupes needs at least 289 seats to win a parliamentary majority. The last period of “cohabitation” in France was 1997-2002, when the center-right president Jacques Chirac was forced to nominate the socialist leader Lionel Jospin as prime minister, after losing his parliamentary majority. . The chances for the majority of Nupes, however, are high. The latest Ifop-Fiducial poll shows that the alliance will receive up to 205 seats. This would lag far behind the majority, but would make it the main opposition party and be eligible for a number of key administrative posts in this House. The same poll shows that Macron’s Ensemble will finish with 250-290 seats. The left-wing groups in the Nupes collectively won about 60 seats in the 2017 election, compared to about 350 for Macron’s allies. If Macron’s Ensemble fails to win an absolute majority, it will need support from the far-right Les Républicains or moderates from the Parti Socialiste. Since 2002, when the timetable was changed so that presidential and parliamentary elections could be held in the same year, the French have never failed to give their presidents a parliamentary majority. The question is, will it apply this time?
